Is It Time To PANIC About The Capitals?
A slow start on F Street has me wondering.
The Washington Capitals were in Ottawa on Wednesday night, and it didn’t go well.
After a first period where they played great, but still fell behind 2-1 to the hometown Ottawa Senators, the Caps were blown out of the barn the rest of the way, losing 6-1.1
Over the first three games of the season, Washington has been outscored 12-3. They’ve only played three good periods out of the nine (plus an overtime vs. Calgary) thus far this season: the first period during the season opener vs. Pittsburgh; the second period vs. Calgary on Monday night; and the first period vs. Ottawa on Wednesday when they outshot the Senators 12-6 despite being outscored, 2-1.
In aggregate, they’ve won those three periods by a score of 3-2. That would be ok if you could replicate it, but the Caps in 2023 don’t look anything like the New Jersey Devils of 1995, 2000 or 2003, which boasted two Hall of Fame defensemen (Scott Stevens and Scott Niedermayer) and a Hall of Fame goaltender (Martin Brodeur).2
The Caps don’t even look like the 2023 New York Islanders, who ice a defensive corps so deep, that Washington would improve their own blue line by simply selecting one of those six defenseman at random and inserting them into their own lineup.
You don’t need to dive deep into the fancy stats to understand what’s wrong. Simple positive and negative integers tell the story quite nicely. Of the team’s top nine highest paid forwards, only Tom Wilson has scored a goal. Center Nicklas Backstrom, winger T.J. Oshie and center Evgeny Kuznetsov are pointless in three games.
Perhaps most distressing of all, Alex Ovechkin, the franchise centerpiece known for unleashing more shots on goal than any other player in NHL history, has been held without a shot in back to back games for the first time in his career. What’s worse, a simple eye test reveals that Ovechkin has been seriously off his game thus far.3
He’s not alone, and his head coach, first-year man Spencer Carbery, would agree. Carbery was very direct in his criticism of his team when he spoke to the media after the game in Ottawa. What’s his diagnosis? Too many Caps are still trying to “find their game” early in the season and “every mistake is ending up in the back of the net.” And what’s his prescription? Get “more guys going” and “tighten up the defense.”
One thing is for certain: there isn’t a lot of help available, and even if there was, there isn’t any room left under the salary cap to make it happen. General Manager Brian MacLellan promoted defenseman Hardy Häman Aktell from the AHL Hershey Bears to the parent club. One would figure that defenseman Lucas Johansen, who was -3 in only 13:43 of ice time vs. Ottawa, will be healthy scratched on Saturday night vs. the Montreal Canadiens in favor of the swift skating Swede.
There are other realities that must be faced. The Caps are the second oldest team in the NHL behind the Pittsburgh Penguins. That means that the bulk of their players are to the right side of the graph when it comes to age. In aggregate, the players in their lineup are as good as they’re ever going to be or their skills are already eroding. Meanwhile, the Senators are on the low end of that curve, with their young players coming into their own and discovering how good they can be.4 The Buffalo Sabres are another team at the lower end of the escalator and rising fast.
Which is the same place the Caps were circa 2007. Those were good times, long ago.
Like it or not, the wheel of time has turned on the Caps, and there isn’t a whole lot that can be done about it. After all, it was just after the 2016-17 season that MacLellan hinted that it was time for a rebuild. He held off, and it paid off with a Stanley Cup win, so it’s hard to argue with that decision.
In terms of the team as a business concern, this couldn’t have happened at a worse time. The franchise’s 588-game sellout streak ended on Monday night vs. Calgary. Everyone loves a winner, and let me tell you, Washington “elites” can sniff out a loser and drop them in a New York minute if they want. If the poor performance on the ice persists for too long, we’ll start seeing more empty seats at puck drop, especially now as the perception of crime in the District is headed in the wrong direction.
Did I also mention that the team now owns the regional sports cable network that airs the Caps, the NBA’s Washington Wizards and the WNBA’s Washington Mystics? At $19.99/month as a standalone subscription, that’s going to be a tough sell if the Caps are losing and Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky and hockey history gets derailed as the team falls apart around him. And finally, Caps owner Ted Leonsis has hinted that he might abscond with his teams to Arlington, Virginia if he doesn’t get some concessions from the city.5 That’s a threat that’s less credible when the skate blades are falling off your hockey team and your NBA franchise isn’t setting the world on fire.
Then again, maybe this is all premature? Perhaps Häman Aktell stabilizes the blue line long enough for Joel Edmundson to return from his foot injury. Maybe Max Pacioretty recovers earlier from his Achilles tendon injury and the team performs some fiscal magic to slip him under the salary cap to provide some offensive tonic.
Maybe, maybe, maybe. The fact is the first week of the season suggests that in the words of the late, great Yogi Berra, it’s getting late early of F Street. Which reminds me of a piece of wisdom from the late Earl Woods: you can’t win The Masters on the first day, but you sure can lose it. And in hockey, you can’t secure a playoff berth at the start of a season, but you sure can lose it too.
I don’t doubt that head coach Carbery has the smarts and tools to turn this around. I just question whether or not he has the players he needs to make it happen.
Stay tuned.
On the plus side, it could have been worse. One of Ottawa’s best players, center Shane Pinto, hasn’t been signed because the team can’t fit even an entry-level contract under the salary cap. Plenty of other teams this season are carrying fewer than the maximum number of players on their rosters because the salary cap has been flat thanks to the Pandemic.
Not to mention other defensive stalwarts like Ken Daneyko and Brian Rafalski.
If you watch the SportsNet highlight reel of the game on YouTube, you can’t help but notice that after seemingly every Ottawa goal, the camera cuts to Ovechkin on the bench for a reaction shot. The spotlight burns bright, especially if you’re poised to displace a Canadian national hero in the history books.
Find the pregame of the 1980 Miracle on Ice game to see where that line comes from.
One way to make sure the press uses a file photo that you want them too is to make your photo freely available via a Creative Commons license. Score one for Ted Leonsis. Here’s hoping he makes more of the team’s action shots available this way too.
I thought they looked slow in the playoff series against Carolina in 2019.
Leonsis really doesn't like owning Cap Centre 2, does he? Never-ending that it is the second best located arena in the country. Neighborhood problems are concerning, but likely temporary.