The New York Mets will host the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon to open the 2024 Major League Baseball season. Normally, like most baseball fans, I’d be doing handsprings to celebrate the return of the sport I loved before all others.
But not this year. This October will mark 38 years since the Mets last won the World Series in 1986. In the interim, I’ve seen the team implode in more ways than I can count. But what has really gotten me down were the results on the field beginning in September 2022 — when the team blew a division lead to the Atlanta Braves before meekly bowing out in the Wild Card round vs. the San Diego Padres — through a 2023 season that was an object lesson in Murphy’s Law. Whatever could go wrong, did.
It started with a freak injury to closer Edwin Diaz while he played for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, and continued into the regular season where not one, but two elite pitchers — Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — underperformed markedly. Without Diaz, the bullpen was compromised at the back end. Without Scherzer and Verlander eating innings and striking out batters, and with other members of the rotation losing time to injury, a compromised bullpen was overtaxed and vulnerable.
The troubles continued into the starting lineup, where essentially the same cast of characters that ranked third in the National League in runs scored in 2022, fell all the way to 11th in 2023. Put it all together, and you had a 26-game drop in the standings, as the team slipped out of playoff contention early, in large part because they couldn’t stand up in head to head matchups vs. the Atlanta Braves. As the string began to run out, owner Steve Cohen and then-general manager Billy Eppler opted for a trade deadline fire sale, albeit one that was probably necessary to re-stock the farm.
So what is there to say about this year? There have been plenty of changes. Eppler resigned after Cohen lured former Milwaukee Brewers executive David Stearns to New York to serve as the new president of baseball operations. Once Stearns was on board, he made it clear that he wanted to hire a manager of his own, so Buck Showalter was shown the door before last season was even over on the field. After doing their best to snag ex-Brewers manager Craig Counsell, the team settled for former Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as their new manager. Everyone in the Bronx praised Mendoza on his way out, but he’s still a first-time manager and an unproven commodity. We’ll have to see how he does with this roster.
Let’s start with the pitching. Scherzer and Verlander left at last season’s trade deadline, so the assumption going into the season was that 2023’s sole bright spot, Kodai Senga, would anchor the rotation. But that was before Senga suffered a “right posterior capsule strain” early in Spring Training. He’s on the 15-day IL now, and only just started throwing again, so the Opening Day start will go to lefty Jose Quintana, who spent months on the injured list last season before acquitting himself well in limited duty. The rest of the staff is rounded out by ex-Yankee Luis Severino, lefty Sean Manaea, former Brewers righty Adrian Houser and returning righty Tylor Megill. I don’t see any arms here who could pitch 200 innings in a full season. Taken together, that seems like a lot of pitchers who project to be back of the rotation talents who might have a tough time getting to six innings consistently.
The good news is that thanks to Diaz’s return, the bullpen will be better. Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley and Drew Smith all return with the job of getting the ball to Diaz in the late innings with a lead. The rest of the bullpen, like most bullpens, is a crap shoot. I have no idea how these guys are going to perform over 162 games, and I doubt anyone else can with any certainty either. We’ll just have to see.
The starting nine experienced a few tweaks. Francisco Alvarez begins the season as the starting catcher, and it was easy to see he came into Spring Training looking lean, mean and ready for his first full season in the majors. The “sophomore slump” is real, so we’ll see how he holds up. Shortstop Franciso Lindor and second baseman Jeff McNeil return as the team’s double play combo, with third baseman Brett Baty and first baseman Pete Alonso at the corners. While Alonso and Lindor provided the power and RBIs last season, Lindor was the only infielder to hit over .250. Baty’s glove at third is adequate, but his bat is suspect. He needs to improve and fast. As for McNeil, he followed up a season where he won a batting title by hitting just .270. He needs to be closer to .300 for this team to be able to win. As the season wears on, the focus will turn to Alonso who is in the last year of his contract. If the Mets are out of it at the trade deadline, I have no doubt that Stearns will deal him if he can get value in return, even though Mets fans will throw a collective fit over it.
The outfield has a new face in centerfielder Harrison Bader. That acquisition forces incumbent Brandon Nimmo over to left field. Overall, it’s an improvement. Nimmo’s play in center greatly improved over the past few seasons, but his arm isn’t the best. Bader covers as much ground as Nimmo and can throw runners out. Back in right field is Starling Marte, who has been plagued by hamstring problems since the stretch run in 2022. He got through Spring Training without getting hurt, but at 35, you never know what might happen.
If there’s been one glaring deficiency in the Mets lineup over the past few seasons, it was the lack of a reliable designated hitter. Late in Spring Training, Stearns remedied that by signing free agent J.D. Martinez. He hit 33 homeruns and drove in over 100 rbi last season, so it’s a major acquisition that puts some beef into the middle of the lineup. However, Martinez was signed so late in Spring Training that he won’t start the season with the team, so it looks like D.J. Stewart, who had something of boomlet late last season, will get some cuts early on as Martinez gets ready in Florida.
There are some new faces on the bench. Tyrone Taylor will be the fourth outfielder, while Kingston, New York-native Zack Short and Joey Wendle will see time in the infield. Omar Narvaez will spell Alvarez behind the plate.
So what do I think? There are so many questions. The rotation looks reliable, but outside of Senga, there are no elite talents. And given that Senga wasn’t been able to take a regular turn in a five-man rotation last season — he took the ball once every six or seven days — he’s not really a staff ace, as good as his results were last season.
Diaz is back in the bullpen, and that will help tremendously. There are familiar faces to take care of the seventh and eighth innings, but what happens when a Mets starter can only go five, something I anticipate will happen often? That will spell trouble.
As for the lineup, you hope it can be better. The Mets led the league in hitting in 2022, only to regress to 14th last season. They can’t be that bad again, or so the law of averages should dictate. Having Martinez at DH will help tremendously. I’m counting on a monster year from Alonso. He’ll be a free agent, and at age 29, he’ll never command more money on the open market than he will at the end of this season.
Taken together, I think this team projects at 84 wins and out of the playoffs. The NL East is still the toughest division in the National League. Atlanta won the division last season with Philadelphia and Miami as the Wild Cards. I don’t expect any of those teams to regress significantly, but you never know. That’s why we play the games.
It almost sounds like I’m getting excited again. We’ll see.