I know I wrote a few words about the Super Bowl yesterday, but somehow I neglected to mention the real reason a large segment of the audience watches: the advertising.
Thanks to the way the attention of Americans has become so diffuse, the traditional 30-second spot is becoming less and less relevant, unless of course you’re talking about professional football, which is the only product still offered by over-the-air television that attracts the sort of mass audience advertisers crave.
Helped by the appearance of Taylor Swift, Super Bowl LVIII reportedly attracted over 123 million viewers, the biggest television audience since Neil Armstrong landed on the Moon in July 1969.1 Back then, the estimate is that 125-150 million Americans watched Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin touch down at the Sea of Tranquility.
So which ad was the best? The answers will be as different as the people who give them. I got the biggest laugh out of Ben Affleck’s “DunKings” spot for Dunkin’ Donuts, but does that mean it was the best ad?
I didn’t work on Madison Avenue, but I did spend about a decade in public affairs advertising at my last job. I was the producer for three campaigns. I didn’t write or shoot the ads — though I did a Hitchcock-like cameo in one spot — but I served as the project manager. I was responsible for budgets, did my best to keep the creative process on track and managed location shoots around the country.
But for every dollar we spent, my bosses expected a reasonable return on investment. In public affairs, that often means generating a measurable change in audience opinion.2 For a client like Dunkin’ Donuts the math is simpler: for every dollar they spend on advertising, how much more product do they move?3 If the answer is greater than a dollar, then you might have a success. If the answer is equal to or less than a dollar, the director of advertising or marketing might be looking for a new job.
Which leads us to the original question: which was the best ad? We may truly never know. I don’t doubt many of these spots will win awards. But don’t be fooled, plaudits from your peer group aren’t going to buy baby a new pair of shoes. Dollars that were spent on the creative and placement for Super Bowl advertising ($7 million for every 30 seconds) are likely amortized over an entire fiscal year, so while CFOs will have an idea what’s working, we won’t ever really know, unless of course you’re willing to dive deep into corporate reports at the end of the year to find out what really happened.
According to Census Bureau estimates, U.S. population is just over 336 million. In 1969, it was 197 million.
The success of the ad that New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft funded on anti-semitism or the “He Gets Us” spot funded by evangelical Christians would fall into this category. Being a fly on the wall listening in on either of those campaigns from conception to measurement would be a real education.
Other ads might have a darker purpose.
I also liked the Dunkin ad best, but the public sentiment analysis seems to show that the Beyonce / Verizon ad landed most effectively and drove the most mentions on social media and Google searches. I actually found that ad annoying and confusing on the first watch, but also I think Bey could have just stood in front of a white screen and said "I'm releasing new music! Verizon!" and that would have had a similar brand impact.
I do find myself going to Dunkin a bit more now in the Dunkin or Starbucks decision when I decide to get out if the house for some coffee.