Since the start of the NHL All-Star break, I’ve been working on a post about how the rest of the season looks for the Washington Capitals after mixed results have left them out of the playoff hunt with 35 games remaining. I concluded that if the Caps were going to turn things around, a lot would depend on Evgeny Kuznetsov, a gifted, but often problematic playmaker that the team desperately needed to step up to help revive the fortunes of franchise cornerstone Alex Ovechkin.
Over the course of the first half of the season, the results were lackluster, with the center tallying just six goals and 11 assists.
Yesterday, he missed practice — Head Coach Spence Carbery termed it a “personal matter” — and the NHL and National Hockey League Players Association issued this joint statement.
In August 2019 Kuznetsov was suspended from international play for four years after he tested positive for cocaine at the 2019 world tournament. The NHL subsequently suspended him for three games, and he entered the league’s substance abuse program (the former name of the player assistance program). Kuznetsov vowed that he would “learn from this.” While it would be unfair to conclude that Kuznetsov’s current troubles are drug-related, it will be impossible to quell the speculation that it is.
One can only hope that whatever the problem is, he gets the help he needs.
In the meantime, Carbery and the Caps are in a pickle. Though Kuznetsov won’t be on the ice, his salary will still count against the team’s cap number. That means if there’s going to be a solution, it’s probably going to have to come from within.
Early in the season, the team had established a pattern: if they could play disciplined hockey, they had the talent and the goaltending to win close games — something great for player development, even if it was taking years off the life of their young coach. If not, things got out of hand quickly and the Caps would be run off the ice.
Since then, the pattern has repeated, and the results show in the standings. The Capitals are 22-18-7 after losing four straight games before the All-Star break. The team is seven points out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as it resumes play tonight against the Montreal Canadiens at home.
Their goal differential now stands at -31, ranked 27th in the NHL. And while the Caps are in the top half of the league when it comes to keeping the puck out of the net, the real problem is a lack of offensive punch, where they rank 30th league-wide.
When Carbery was hired in June, I wrote that he had two jobs. The first was getting a roster filled with new arrivals and younger players on the same page and getting them to the playoffs. As for the second …
If that was Carbery’s only job, it would be challenging enough. But just as important, he has to find a way not just to win, but to win while helping Alex Ovechkin catch Wayne Gretzky as the greatest goal scorer in the history of the NHL. Given that the Caps can’t win without Ovechkin scoring gobs of goals, the two objectives are inextricably linked. But father time always wins, and Ovechkin, as great as he is, will turn 38 (!) before the team returns to the ice next season.
In 44 games, Ovechkin has just nine goals, easily the worst start he’s had to a season in his entire career. His shooting percentage is just 6.0%, also the worst of his career and more than 50% off his career average of 12.8%. Ovechkin stands 63 goals behind Gretzky. If he does catch him, it’s not likely to happen until the 2025-26 season at the earliest, the last season of his current contract with the Capitals.
If the Capitals are going to win consistently and get back into playoff contention, Ovechkin needs to start scoring, especially when the team is playing 5-on-5. But he can’t do it alone. He clearly needs help. At yesterday’s press gaggle after practice, Ovechkin was asked about the source of his troubles, but he was short on answers.
“I don’t know,” Ovechkin said. “Obviously, it’s up to me what I have to do better to get those shots [going] in. But how I said, sometimes maybe you’re going to have 100 percent chance, but you have to use it. And then when the first goal goes in, you feel much comfortable and you feel much, much better at your game.”
Early in his career, the Caps could pair Ovechkin with a competent two-way center like Chris Clark and not worry much. For years, Backstrom was Robin to Ovechkin’s Batman, but now Backstrom is gone and there is no actual insurance policy.
Ovechkin needs a pivot who can get him the puck. The hope was that Kuznetsov would enjoy a renaissance under Carbery, and perhaps rekindle the magic he and Ovechkin enjoyed during the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But now, that’s all out the window. Before the announcement of Kuznetsov’s entry into the player assistance program, the Caps recalled veteran centerman Mike Sgarbossa to Washington. Though he leads the AHL in assists, nobody expects him to step in between Ovechkin and rugged winger Tom Wilson. Nick Dowd, the fourth line center who is now subject to deadline trade rumors, isn’t moving from that spot.
Of late, the line of Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie and Max Pacioretty has been the team’s most effective, and I’m guessing Carbery will be chary to break them up. That leaves young center Connor McMichael to slot into the job. While he’s shown flashes of good play and offensive instincts, playing beside Ovechkin is a tall order.
Buckle up, kid.
Things aren’t all bad. They rarely are even on losing NHL teams. Veterans John Carlson and Wilson, both playing their first full seasons after returning from injuries, have acquitted themselves very well. Carlson is ably anchoring the defense, and one wonders where this team would be without him. Wilson got off to a good start, earning an All-Star nod, though his performance has slackened of late.
Strome, signed to a very team-friendly contract before the season, has been a revelation, leading the team in goals with 19. More recently, he’s been paired with wingers Oshie and Pacioretty, forming the team’s most potent forward line. Anthony Mantha, who made a lot of noise in the off season about rededicating himself to the game has likely saved his career, posting 15 goals before the break.
Aliaksei Protas, still just 23, has quietly piled up 15 assists. In crunch time, the trio that the Caps trust to keep the puck out of the net is the team’s fourth line centered by Dowd, a veteran of nine seasons who may be playing the best hockey of his career with wingers Beck Malenstyn and Nicolas Aubé-Kubel. Dowd has played so well, in fact, that with the team out of playoff position, his name gets talked about as a potential deadline deal acquisition for another club looking to bolster their depth down the middle in hopes of a deep playoff run.
Some have speculated that Dowd might fetch a first round pick in a trade. I feel like that’s a touch optimistic, but with one year left on his affordable contract, there’s little doubt that the team will have to listen to any offers they get if they fall further out of contention. There are others who could be on the way out. Mantha, who is in the last year of his multi-year deal, will get a lot of looks, especially if he keeps scoring. Pacioretty, who is earning significant bonuses for staying healthy after tearing his achilles tendon twice, is also on an expiring contract and could be dealt if he waives his no movement clause. Defenseman Joel Edmundson will probably be available too, despite his ten-team no trade list, as every potential playoff team is looking for a spare defenseman at the trade deadline.
But the most intriguing trade possibility has to concern goalie Darcy Keumper. Signed before last season to a five-year deal in the wake of backstopping the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup, Keumper has been underwhelming in 1.5 seasons in Washington. This season, thanks to a GAA above 3.00 and a save percentage under .900, Keumper has gone from being the acknowledged starter in goal to one-half of a tandem with teammate Charlie Lindgren. Despite his performance in Washington, a Stanley Cup pedigree for a goalie means a lot. Keumper has a modified no-trade clause in his contract, which leaves 16 other cities where he could wind up. The people who talk to me said teams were sniffing around Keumper earlier this season, and I think General Manager Brian MacLellan will be listening carefully.
These are very depressing possibilities. There are few things as disheartening to hockey fans as a trade deadline fire sale followed by a team skating out the schedule. Which begs the question: is there any way it can be avoided?
Probably not. There are too many “ifs” when it comes to the Capitals this season. They are an old team. The core pieces of the Ovechkin Era — with the exception of Ovi himself and Carlson — have aged out, moved on or both. The only question that remains is how the last years of Ovechkin’s career are going to play out.
Does Ovechkin have 64 goals left in his stick? At the beginning of the season, I said maybe he does. Now, I’m just not sure.